No longer a US priority, is Afghanistan a Central Asia problem now?

Washington — Afghanistan’s Central Asian neighbors are holding out hope that America, based on its pledges at September’s C5+1 summit, will expand its role in this neighborhood. The wish list includes delivering more humanitarian assistance to the Afghan people, facilitating the expansion of trade, and combating the threats of terrorism emanating from Afghanistan. 

Officials speaking with VOA suggest that more aid could be channeled into Afghanistan via Uzbekistan. Additionally, Washington could offer more military assistance to Central Asian states and tangibly support their regional connectivity initiatives. 

While no country has formally announced diplomatic recognition of the Taliban government, Central Asian nations have been engaging with the Taliban based on mutual interests, such as security, trade, and water sharing. Uzbekistan, which has extensive political and economic ties with Kabul, has been urging the West and the larger international community not to isolate Afghanistan. 

Nearly three years since the withdrawal of American forces, U.S. officials insist that they have not abandoned Afghanistan, pointing to ongoing efforts and consultations with Central Asian counterparts. However, they admit Washington’s priorities have shifted to other issues, such as Russia’s war on Ukraine. 

“It will take the U.S. a decade or two to recover from the fact that we lost the war,” said David Sedney, a veteran diplomat and former deputy assistant secretary of defense for Afghanistan, Pakistan and Central Asia. “It took us 20 years before we were able to engage in Vietnam in a productive way,” he told VOA. 

Scott Worden, who heads the Afghanistan and Central Asia programs at the U.S. Institute of Peace, thinks that Central Asian governments overestimate Washington’s leverage. 

“There are a lot of issues in the world that have to be addressed simultaneously,” he noted in an interview with VOA. “They [the U.S.] are balancing the leverage that they have against issues that are manageable and maybe achievable versus ones like women’s rights, which I think the administration cares strongly about.” 

“It’s just a really tough situation,” Worden added. “In my view, you should not condition humanitarian assistance. Any economic sanctions wind up hurting the Afghans that we want to support. It’s a difficult balance, and so I don’t think there is any obvious additional tool or leverage that could be deployed that they’re withholding.” 

Some Western nations including the United States, however, have filtered humanitarian aid programs through partner organizations that circumvent Taliban officials and deliver aid directly to Afghan civilians.

According to USAID, the U.S. supplied nearly $81 million in Afghan humanitarian aid in fiscal year 2024, and has supplied total funding for Afghanistan of “more than $2 billion since August 2021 … including more than $1.5 billion in [USAID’s Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance] funding and nearly $550 million in [the State Department’s Bureau of Population, Refugees, and Migration] funding.”

“Provided through international partners on the ground,” says USAID, this assistance helps “meet the needs of the most vulnerable through food and cash support, nutrition, health care, protection for women and children, and agricultural inputs to support Afghans in meeting their immediate food needs.” 

Like Sedney, Worden suggests being realistic. “There is ample opportunity for the U.S. and other international partners to talk to the Taliban when they want to.” 

“This is all part of a very difficult global conversation,” he said. 

But for Frederick Starr, chairman of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, known for advocating closer ties with the region, Afghanistan is “utterly ignored right now.” 

Starr emphasizes that this country is critical for regional integration and stability, two goals the U.S. has long vowed to support. 

Sedney observes that “not many people want to talk about Afghanistan,” not just in Washington but in other Western capitals as well. 

Speaking last week at the American Foreign Policy Council, these experts stressed that America’s two decades of involvement in Afghanistan left it with an obligation to go beyond the status quo. 

Starr approves of the steps Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan have taken with Afghanistan, particularly regarding commerce, energy supply and water resources. 

Other observers, however, warn about tensions between the Taliban and Tajikistan, which officially supports the National Resistance Front, an armed alliance of anti-Taliban forces that is loyal to the previous regime and carries out guerrilla attacks in Afghanistan. Dushanbe continues to host the previous government’s ambassador. 

Worden identifies several key interests and objectives for Washington, most of which align with those of the region. The first and most important objective is counterterrorism, ensuring that Afghan territory is never again used to launch attacks on the U.S. or its allies. 

Others include negotiations on American hostages; the evacuation of Afghans that the U.S. promised to help following its withdrawal; women’s rights and other human rights; humanitarian assistance; and economic development. 

Perhaps the most abstract interest, according to Worden, “is trying to maintain an international diplomatic consensus on the broad conditions and expectations that we have for the Taliban, which include in the endgame a more inclusive society that is not a threat to itself and for its neighbors as well as these U.S. interests.” 

“It’s remarkable that no country in the world has recognized the Taliban,” he said, adding, however, that he sees a divergence between Western-allied emphasis on human rights and women’s rights and the neighboring countries’ economic and security concerns. 

In Worden’s view, the U.S. is pursuing a policy of “quiet engagement” on humanitarian assistance and counterterrorism. At the same time, there is a firm position of non-recognition and not wanting to legitimize the Taliban. 

“Can this dualism sustain over time?” asked Worden, who also sees a cleavage developing, where countries in the region will over time increase engagement with those in power in Afghanistan to achieve their economic and security interests. “Not that they like the Taliban, but they feel like talking to them is better than not.” 

Regardless of who inhabits the White House next January, Worden doubts that U.S. attention toward Afghanistan will increase unless there is an “acute crisis.” 

Republicans tend to “prefer coercion to engagement when you’re talking about regimes that we don’t have much in common with,” he said. “So yes, there is the wild card of potentially making a great deal, but I think the odds of support for armed opposition would increase.” 

U.S.-based Afghan journalist Samy Mahdi, who runs Amu Television out of Virginia, points out that the Taliban enjoy close relations with America’s adversaries, such as Iran, Russia and China. He argues that U.S. assistance has brought about minimum results, and that the Taliban is as radical and dangerous as it was in the 1990s. 

Mahdi recommends a full review of U.S. policy. 

“More communication and transparency are needed on Afghanistan,” he said at the American Foreign Policy Council forum. “We don’t hear much from the U.S. administration about Afghanistan.”

Blinken looks to boost people-to-people ties during second visit to China

State Department  — While Washington and Beijing are divided over a range of thorny issues, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken began his second visit to China this week focusing first on the importance of direct engagement. It is something, he says, that is essential for addressing key issues affecting people from both countries and the world. 

People-to-people ties 

In a relaxed setting Wednesday, amid efforts to strengthen people-to-people ties, Blinken attended a playoff game between the Chinese Basketball Association’s Shanghai Sharks and Zhejiang Golden Bulls. 

Earlier, a crowd of people gathered to watch as the motorcade of the U.S. delegation left its hotel for a local eatery, the Nanxiang Steamed Bun Restaurant. There were more onlookers who gathered when Blinken sat at a table in the restaurant’s gallery, which overlooks a courtyard. 

Blinken said on social media that his “intensive face-to-face diplomacy” with officials from the People’s Republic of China is part of an “ongoing, direct engagement” that is “vital for making progress on issues that matter most to the American people and the world.” 

In Beijing, Chinese officials said Blinken’s visit is part of the ongoing efforts of both nations to maintain dialogue, manage differences, promote cooperation, and enhance coordination in international affairs.

Potential sanctions on Chinese banks

The United States has warned China against its support for Russia in its war on Ukraine, as Chinese firms directly supply crucial components to Russia’s defense industry. This month, foreign ministers from the Group of Seven jointly called on China to cease transferring dual-use materials and weapons components aiding Russia’s military production.

A senior State Department official told VOA that the United States is “prepared to take steps” when necessary against Chinese firms that “severely undermine security in both Ukraine and Europe.” But he declined to give any details about those potential further U.S. sanctions.  

What is clear is that the United States is considering sanctioning Chinese banks that facilitate the transfer of those materials.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has said Washington stands ready to impose sanctions on Chinese banks and companies and Beijing’s leadership if they assist Russia’s military in its invasion of Ukraine. 

Officials in China have dismissed Washington’s concerns. 

“We firmly oppose the U.S.’s hypocritical moves of fanning the flames while deflecting the blame on China. China’s right to normal trade and economic cooperation with Russia and all other countries should not be violated. We will firmly safeguard our lawful rights and interests,” said Wang Wenbin, a spokesperson from China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, in a briefing this week. 

Counternarcotics 

China-based companies remain the largest source of precursor chemicals used to manufacture illicit fentanyl that affects the United States. 

Immediately after U.S. President Joe Biden’s face-to-face talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Woodsides, California, in November, the Beijing government started to take action to curtail the flow of fentanyl precursors and equipment. 

For the first time in nearly three years, China submitted information related to 145 incidents to the International Narcotics Control Board’s global IONICS database, which supports global law enforcement coordination efforts to disrupt illicit synthetic drug supply chains, according to the State Department. 

While the initial Chinese actions were a positive step, Washington underscored the need for continued and sustained progress.

China can strengthen coordination with the U.S. and other international partners with law enforcement information sharing, regular contributions to international databases tracking synthetic drug threats, and monitoring emerging trends, said the U.S. State Department. 

Level 3: Reconsider travel to China 

Despite the increase of commercial flights between the United States and China, the U.S. government has advised Americans to reconsider travel to China due to the arbitrary enforcement of local laws, including in relation to exit bans, and the risk of wrongful detentions. 

The State Department also advised Americans to exercise increased caution when traveling to Hong Kong and Macao due to the arbitrary enforcement of local laws.

A senior State Department official downplayed the possibility of immediately easing warnings by lowering the travel advisory from level 3 to level 2 for China.

“We’ll, of course, re-evaluate and, as appropriate, adjust. But really, this is a pretty rigorous process,” said the official during a recent briefing.

The senior official said Washington has raised concerns with Chinese counterparts regarding specific cases of detentions and exit bans, as well as the opaque and arbitrary application of certain national security laws.

To “ensure the safety and security of American citizens” traveling abroad is among the most important responsibilities of the U.S. government, said the official.

In Beijing, Chinese officials criticized the U.S. State Department’s travel warning, calling it “unwarranted” and the “stumbling block” in people-to-people exchanges between the two countries. They urged the U.S. to revise the advisory level “as soon as possible.”

Facing repression in China, Muslims seek freedom in NYC

In a dramatic surge, U.S. border patrol authorities detained more than 24,000 Chinese citizens crossing the southern border in fiscal year 2023, a 12-fold increase from the previous year. Many come seeking asylum, and among those that do, a small group of China’s ethnic Hui Muslims stands out. Aron Ranen brings us the story from the Big Apple.

Це «тимчасовий крок» – МЗС про обмеження консульських послуг для чоловіків за кордоном

У МЗС зауважили, що після набуття чинності закону про мобілізацію 18 травня 2024 року «процес прийняття і розгляду заяв про вчинення консульських дій продовжиться з урахуванням нових вимог, що випливають із положень закону»

US Senate passes bill to force TikTok divestment or ban

WASHINGTON — The U.S. Senate voted late Tuesday to send legislation to President Joe Biden that would require Chinese owner ByteDance to divest the popular short video app’s U.S. assets within about nine months or face a

Ban.

The measure, passed by the U.S. House of Representatives on Saturday, has been driven by concerns that China could access Americans’ data or surveil them with the app and Biden has said he will sign it into law.

“For years we’ve allowed the Chinese Communist party to control one of the most popular apps in America that was dangerously shortsighted,” said Senator Marco Rubio, the top Republican on the Intelligence Committee. “A new law is going to require its Chinese owner to sell the app. This is a good move for America.”

TikTok, which says it has not shared and would not share U.S. user data with the Chinese government, has argued the law amounts to a ban that would violate the U.S. free speech rights of its users.

The company did not immediately comment but over the weekend, it told its employees that it would quickly go to court to try to block the legislation.

“We’ll continue to fight, as this legislation is a clear violation of the First Amendment rights of the 170 million Americans on TikTok… This is the beginning, not the end of this long process,” TikTok told employees on Saturday in an email seen by Reuters.

The Senate voted 79 to 18 in favor of the bill.